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Health & Fitness

German Vote Could Be A Cliff-Hanger!

By Fred Hoffman
German Honorary Consul - Detroit

One of the most important elections of the year will take place in Germany Sept 22 when voters there will decide if Chancellor Angela Merkel (On-geh-leh Mare-kull) and her center-right coalition will continue in power. . .Why does it matter to America and our business community? . . .Because Germany has become the economic cornerstone in an united Europe, and Mrs. Merkel has carved out for herself arguably the most prominent political role on the continent.

If her coalition loses to the center-left coalition, at minimum there will be a period of uncertainty, and it is probable there will be policy changes as well. Note that the German political pendulum doesn't swing as widely as in some countries, but a Merkel loss could affect trade negotiations, defense policy and European financial integration - and more.

The polls are showing the Chancellor, a 59 year old physicist from East Germany, with 66% job approval ratings - and considerable leads in head-to-head matchups over her Social Democratic Party (SPD) rival Peer Steinbrueck. . . But, as the Chancellor keeps hammering at rallies, that is not how the election is decided.

Instead, the winner will be the candidate whose party or coalition wins most seats in the parliament, called the Bundestag.

Voters in each of the 299 districts will cast two votes - one for their own representative, and one for a party. The winning district candidates will all be seated, but another 299 (or more) will be assigned based on state party slates according to vote percentages. It gets further complicated because of a 5% threshold that could knock out minor party candidates, and a balancing requirement to create "overhang" seats in the event a party wins more first-round seats than its vote percentage dictates.

From a practical standpoint, that means that Mrs. Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) coalition, now at about 41% in the polls, needs to win the support of other parties such as current partner Free Democratic Party (FDP) to gain a majority and the right to continue ruling. Mr. Steinbrueck's party, now at about 25%, could stage a coup by winning the Greens, polling at about 13%, and the Left, polling at about 8%. There is an historical rift between the SPD and the Left that has Steinbrueck saying he could not link up with the Left (former Communists), and he is also ruling out a "grand coalition" of the two major parties like one led by Mrs. Merkel two terms ago. But you never know in politics.

What do the Germans think of all this? Only 29% say they have talked about the upcoming election in the past month, so September "surprises" are possible once voters start to focus - except, Germans don't tend to like surprises - so, again, who knows? It could be a close count Sept. 22, and minority parties - even those not making the threshold - could factor into the computation if Angela Merkel retains her Chancellorship.

Stay tuned.

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